Next Week, Live
Projected rankings
A model’s estimate of next week’s order will appear here once this week’s games begin. The official rankings are the editor’s and are not changed by anything here.
Not started yet
Week projections begin Sunday, 2:00 PM EDT.
Nothing is shown until there is something real to show. Vegas lines are being recorded in the meantime so that this week’s results can be judged against what was expected of them.
Scorecard
How the Week 3 projection did
The final projection built from Week 2 games, compared with the Week 3 rankings the editor published on Sep 23, 11:27 AM EDT. The published projection was closer than leaving last week’s order unchanged: 2.3 places off on average, against 2.7.
| Forecast | Average miss | Within 2 places | Correlation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Published projectionAs readers saw it · pre-rank-1.2.0 | 2.3 places | 20 of 32 | 0.95 |
| Current method, re-runVegas lines · pre-rank-1.4.0 | 2.2 places | 23 of 32 | 0.96 |
| Nobody movesWeek 2 order carried forward | 2.7 places | 17 of 32 | 0.94 |
Biggest misses: Giants (projected 14th, ranked 20th) · Colts (projected 31st, ranked 25th) · Packers (projected 13th, ranked 18th)
- The Week 3 draft started in the projection’s order, and the editor moved 24 of 32 teams before publishing (the largest move: Packers, from 10th to 18th). Some of the agreement is therefore built in, and it favours the published forecast, which is the one the draft was sorted by. The editor’s moves show where they disagreed with it.
- The re-run uses today’s method (Vegas closing lines as the pregame expectation) on the same games. It was produced after the rankings were published, so it shows whether the method has improved. It is not what readers saw.
- One week is too little to judge a method. Correlation is Spearman’s: 1.00 means the same order.