NFL Power Rankings

Biggest ranking moves
Vikings 6Up 6 places from 22.
Raiders 6Up 6 places from 29.
Buccaneers 7Down 7 places from 14.
Texans 4Down 4 places from 9.
Bills take No. 1

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1Up 1 place from 2
Buffalo Bills
2-0recordAFC East
Super Bowl Contenders
Josh Allen MVP
Beat Lions (projected 13th) by 10. They moved the ball at will — a success rate of 66% against a defence holding everyone else to 44%. Read the totals carefully — 42% of their snaps came with the result already decided. At 73% this was the expected outcome, so it is worth less than the scoreline looks.
Editor's note · written after Week 2 (W 41-31 vs Lions)
Unit ranks
Passing offense6.5 net yds/dropback (adj.)1st
Passing offense: 1st of 32, 6.5 net yds/dropback (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing offense56% success rate (adj.)4th
Rushing offense: 4th of 32, 56% success rate (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Passing defense5.8 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.)27th
Passing defense: 27th of 32, 5.8 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing defense53% success allowed (adj.)19th
Rushing defense: 19th of 32, 53% success allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Calculated from box scores · through Week 3 · 2 games
Points/game
38.51st
Points allowed/game
31.028th
Point differential
+159th
Through Week 3 · 2 games
Form
W W 36-31
W W 41-31
Week 3 matchup
vs Los Angeles Chargers
Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM EDT
Win chance74%VegasBuffalo Bills: 74 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (BUF −7 · O/U 50.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Week 4 matchup
vs New England Patriots
Sun Oct 4 · 1:00 PM EDT
Win chance69%VegasBuffalo Bills: 69 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (BUF −5.5 · O/U 49.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Team breakdown →
2Down 1 place from 1
Seattle Seahawks
2-0recordNFC West
Super Bowl Contenders
When is Darnold coming back?
Beat Cardinals (projected 21st) by 24. Drew Lock was surgical, 19 of 26 at 8.1 a dropback with 3 touchdowns. Scored on 50% of their drives at 3.1 points a possession, which is efficiency rather than opportunity. At 77% this was the expected outcome, so it is worth less than the scoreline looks.
Editor's note · written after Week 2 (W 31-7 at Cardinals)
Unit ranks
Passing offense6.1 net yds/dropback (adj.)4th
Passing offense: 4th of 32, 6.1 net yds/dropback (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing offense52% success rate (adj.)23rd
Rushing offense: 23rd of 32, 52% success rate (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Passing defense4.2 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.)1st
Passing defense: 1st of 32, 4.2 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing defense52% success allowed (adj.)10th
Rushing defense: 10th of 32, 52% success allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Calculated from box scores · through Week 3 · 2 games
Points/game
22.017th
Points allowed/game
8.52nd
Point differential
+272nd
Through Week 3 · 2 games
Form
W W 13-10
W W 31-7
Week 3 matchup
at Washington Commanders
Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM EDT
Win chance75%VegasSeattle Seahawks: 75 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (SEA −7.5 · O/U 40.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Week 4 matchup
vs Los Angeles Chargers
Sun Oct 4 · 4:25 PM EDT
Win chance71%VegasSeattle Seahawks: 71 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (SEA −6.5 · O/U 42.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Team breakdown →
3Unchanged at 3
San Francisco 49ers
2-0recordNFC West
Super Bowl Contenders
Purdy remains underrated
Beat Dolphins (projected 32nd) by 22. Brock Purdy was surgical, 20 of 22 at 13.0 a dropback with 2 touchdowns. They moved the ball at will — a success rate of 69% against a defence holding everyone else to 61%. At 87% this was the expected outcome, so it is worth less than the scoreline looks.
Editor's note · written after Week 2 (W 35-13 vs Dolphins)
Unit ranks
Passing offense6.3 net yds/dropback (adj.)2nd
Passing offense: 2nd of 32, 6.3 net yds/dropback (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing offense59% success rate (adj.)1st
Rushing offense: 1st of 32, 59% success rate (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Passing defense5.4 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.)14th
Passing defense: 14th of 32, 5.4 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing defense52% success allowed (adj.)16th
Rushing defense: 16th of 32, 52% success allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Calculated from box scores · through Week 3 · 2 games
Points/game
31.04th
Points allowed/game
10.03rd
Point differential
+421st
Through Week 3 · 2 games
Form
W W 27-7
W W 35-13
Week 3 matchup
vs Arizona Cardinals
Sun Sep 27 · 4:05 PM EDT
Win chance79%VegasSan Francisco 49ers: 79 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (SF −8.5 · O/U 47.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Week 4 matchup
vs Denver Broncos
Sun Oct 4 · 4:25 PM EDT
Win chance66%VegasSan Francisco 49ers: 66 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (SF −4.5 · O/U 45.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Team breakdown →
4Up 1 place from 5
Kansas City Chiefs
2-0recordAFC West
Super Bowl Contenders
Mahomes is back? K9 OPOY?
Beat Colts (projected 31st) by 3. Scored on 70% of their drives at 3.3 points a possession, which is efficiency rather than opportunity. Patrick Mahomes was surgical, 32 of 47 at 7.6 a dropback with 3 touchdowns. At 72% this was the expected outcome, so it is worth less than the scoreline looks.
Editor's note · written after Week 2 (W 33-30 vs Colts)
Unit ranks
Passing offense5.6 net yds/dropback (adj.)10th
Passing offense: 10th of 32, 5.6 net yds/dropback (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing offense54% success rate (adj.)8th
Rushing offense: 8th of 32, 54% success rate (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Passing defense5.0 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.)5th
Passing defense: 5th of 32, 5.0 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing defense53% success allowed (adj.)18th
Rushing defense: 18th of 32, 53% success allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Calculated from box scores · through Week 3 · 2 games
Points/game
32.03rd
Points allowed/game
20.011th
Point differential
+244th
Through Week 3 · 2 games
Form
W W 31-10
W W 33-30
Week 3 matchup
at Miami Dolphins
Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM EDT
Win chance83%VegasKansas City Chiefs: 83 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (KC −10.5 · O/U 45.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Week 4 matchup
at Las Vegas Raiders
Sun Oct 4 · 4:25 PM EDT
Win chance69%VegasKansas City Chiefs: 69 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (KC −6 · O/U 45.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Team breakdown →
5Up 1 place from 6
Los Angeles Rams
1-1recordNFC West
Super Bowl Contenders
Maybe they did have bad travel plans...
Beat Giants (projected 22nd) by 22. Matthew Stafford was surgical, 22 of 31 at 9.9 a dropback with 4 touchdowns. The defence is what won this: Giants succeeded on only 36% of their snaps and managed 0.6 points a drive. At 72% this was the expected outcome, so it is worth less than the scoreline looks.
Editor's note · written after Week 2 (W 28-6 vs Giants)
Unit ranks
Passing offense5.8 net yds/dropback (adj.)7th
Passing offense: 7th of 32, 5.8 net yds/dropback (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing offense56% success rate (adj.)5th
Rushing offense: 5th of 32, 56% success rate (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Passing defense4.8 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.)2nd
Passing defense: 2nd of 32, 4.8 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing defense55% success allowed (adj.)24th
Rushing defense: 24th of 32, 55% success allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Calculated from box scores · through Week 3 · 2 games
Points/game
17.522nd
Points allowed/game
16.58th
Point differential
+217th
Through Week 3 · 2 games
Form
L L 7-27
W W 28-6
Week 3 matchup
at Denver Broncos
Sun Sep 27 · 8:20 PM EDT
Win chance54%VegasLos Angeles Rams: 54 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (LAR −2.5 · O/U 44.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Week 4 matchup
at Philadelphia Eagles
Sun Oct 4 · 1:00 PM EDT
Win chance55%VegasLos Angeles Rams: 55 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (LAR −1.5 · O/U 45.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Team breakdown →
6Down 2 places from 4
Cincinnati Bengals
2-0recordAFC North
Playoff Threats
Winning games but not because their offense
Beat Texans (projected 15th) by 14. They won it without ever being efficient: just 40% of early-down snaps succeeded, leaving third down needing 9.3 on average. 52% of Joe Burrow's yardage went to Tee Higgins, 5 catches for 95 — one obvious answer, and defences get a week to work on it. Our own estimate had it at 57% — a real contest, and winning it counts.
Editor's note · written after Week 2 (W 20-6 at Texans)
Unit ranks
Passing offense5.3 net yds/dropback (adj.)22nd
Passing offense: 22nd of 32, 5.3 net yds/dropback (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing offense54% success rate (adj.)11th
Rushing offense: 11th of 32, 54% success rate (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Passing defense5.5 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.)17th
Passing defense: 17th of 32, 5.5 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing defense52% success allowed (adj.)15th
Rushing defense: 15th of 32, 52% success allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Calculated from box scores · through Week 3 · 2 games
Points/game
26.510th
Points allowed/game
16.58th
Point differential
+206th
Through Week 3 · 2 games
Form
W W 33-27
W W 20-6
Week 3 matchup
at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM EDT
Win chance61%VegasCincinnati Bengals: 61 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (CIN −3.5 · O/U 42.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Week 4 matchup
vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Sun Oct 4 · 1:00 PM EDT
Win chance59%VegasCincinnati Bengals: 59 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (CIN −3 · O/U 49.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Team breakdown →
7Unchanged at 7
Denver Broncos
1-1recordAFC West
Playoff Threats
Bo Nix needs to figure it out, Davis Webb can't call plays right now
Beat Jaguars (projected 12th) by 7. Bo Nix was surgical, 22 of 31 at 9.3 a dropback with a touchdown. They could not stay on schedule: 52% of snaps succeeded against a defence that had been allowing 60%. Our own estimate had it at 58% — a real contest, and winning it counts.
Editor's note · written after Week 2 (W 20-13 vs Jaguars)
Unit ranks
Passing offense5.3 net yds/dropback (adj.)19th
Passing offense: 19th of 32, 5.3 net yds/dropback (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing offense52% success rate (adj.)16th
Rushing offense: 16th of 32, 52% success rate (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Passing defense5.0 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.)6th
Passing defense: 6th of 32, 5.0 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing defense51% success allowed (adj.)9th
Rushing defense: 9th of 32, 51% success allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Calculated from box scores · through Week 3 · 2 games
Points/game
15.027th
Points allowed/game
22.013th
Point differential
-1422nd
Through Week 3 · 2 games
Form
L L 10-31
W W 20-13
Week 3 matchup
vs Los Angeles Rams
Sun Sep 27 · 8:20 PM EDT
Win chance46%VegasDenver Broncos: 46 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (LAR −2.5 · O/U 44.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Week 4 matchup
at San Francisco 49ers
Sun Oct 4 · 4:25 PM EDT
Win chance34%VegasDenver Broncos: 34 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (SF −4.5 · O/U 45.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Team breakdown →
8Unchanged at 8
Chicago Bears
1-1recordNFC North
In the Mix
Caleb ran out of nail polish
Lost to Vikings (projected 17th) by 6. The problem was first and second down, not third — 36% of early-down snaps succeeded, leaving third down needing 8.1 on average. They gave it away twice and the margin followed. Turnovers bounce around week to week, so the rating reads this result more kindly than the scoreline does. They were 69% on our own estimate to win this, and losing a game you were expected to win costs more than the margin suggests.
Editor's note · written after Week 2 (L 3-9 vs Vikings)
Unit ranks
Passing offense5.5 net yds/dropback (adj.)13th
Passing offense: 13th of 32, 5.5 net yds/dropback (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing offense54% success rate (adj.)13th
Rushing offense: 13th of 32, 54% success rate (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Passing defense5.8 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.)26th
Passing defense: 26th of 32, 5.8 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing defense55% success allowed (adj.)22nd
Rushing defense: 22nd of 32, 55% success allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Calculated from box scores · through Week 3 · 2 games
Points/game
31.04th
Points allowed/game
23.016th
Point differential
+168th
Through Week 3 · 2 games
Form
W W 59-37
L L 3-9
Week 3 matchup
vs Philadelphia Eagles
Mon Sep 28 · 8:15 PM EDT
Win chance34%VegasChicago Bears: 34 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (PHI −4.5 · O/U 41.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Week 4 matchup
vs New York Jets
Sun Oct 4 · 1:00 PM EDT
Win chance59%VegasChicago Bears: 59 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (CHI −3 · O/U 43.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Team breakdown →
9Up 2 places from 11
Baltimore Ravens
1-1recordAFC North
Playoff Threats
Zay Flowers is the glue
Lost to Saints (projected 20th) by 7. They moved the ball at will — a success rate of 67% against a defence holding everyone else to 52%. 43% of Lamar Jackson's yardage went to Rashod Bateman, 7 catches for 88 and a score — one obvious answer, and defences get a week to work on it. They were 76% on our own estimate to win this, and losing a game you were expected to win costs more than the margin suggests.
Editor's note · written after Week 2 (L 17-24 vs Saints)
Unit ranks
Passing offense6.0 net yds/dropback (adj.)5th
Passing offense: 5th of 32, 6.0 net yds/dropback (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing offense58% success rate (adj.)2nd
Rushing offense: 2nd of 32, 58% success rate (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Passing defense5.3 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.)12th
Passing defense: 12th of 32, 5.3 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing defense52% success allowed (adj.)14th
Rushing defense: 14th of 32, 52% success allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Calculated from box scores · through Week 3 · 2 games
Points/game
29.07th
Points allowed/game
23.517th
Point differential
+1111th
Through Week 3 · 2 games
Form
W W 41-23
L L 17-24
Week 3 matchup
vs Dallas Cowboys
Sun Sep 27 · 4:25 PM EDT
Win chance61%VegasBaltimore Ravens: 61 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (BAL −3.5 · O/U 53.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Week 4 matchup
vs Tennessee Titans
Sun Oct 4 · 1:00 PM EDT
Win chance82%VegasBaltimore Ravens: 82 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (BAL −10.5 · O/U 44.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Team breakdown →
10Up 2 places from 12
Philadelphia Eagles
2-0recordNFC East
Playoff Threats
Barely snuck out a win
Beat Titans (projected 28th) by 4. They could not stay on schedule: 43% of snaps succeeded against a defence that had been allowing 60%. They won it despite giving the ball away twice. Turnovers bounce around week to week, so the rating reads this result more kindly than the scoreline does. Our own estimate had it at 68% — a real contest, and winning it counts.
Editor's note · written after Week 2 (W 24-20 at Titans)
Unit ranks
Passing offense5.2 net yds/dropback (adj.)24th
Passing offense: 24th of 32, 5.2 net yds/dropback (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing offense49% success rate (adj.)30th
Rushing offense: 30th of 32, 49% success rate (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Passing defense5.6 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.)18th
Passing defense: 18th of 32, 5.6 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing defense50% success allowed (adj.)6th
Rushing defense: 6th of 32, 50% success allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Calculated from box scores · through Week 3 · 2 games
Points/game
24.013th
Points allowed/game
21.012th
Point differential
+615th
Through Week 3 · 2 games
Form
W W 24-22
W W 24-20
Week 3 matchup
at Chicago Bears
Mon Sep 28 · 8:15 PM EDT
Win chance66%VegasPhiladelphia Eagles: 66 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (PHI −4.5 · O/U 41.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Week 4 matchup
vs Los Angeles Rams
Sun Oct 4 · 1:00 PM EDT
Win chance45%VegasPhiladelphia Eagles: 45 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (LAR −1.5 · O/U 45.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Team breakdown →
11Down 1 place from 10
Jacksonville Jaguars
1-1recordAFC South
In the Mix
Wasted pick on Travis Hunter
Lost to Broncos (projected 7th) by 7. Trevor Lawrence never got going — 17 of 29 for 189 at 5.6 a dropback, with an interception. Our own estimate had them at 42%, so the loss is only a modest mark against them.
Editor's note · written after Week 2 (L 13-20 at Broncos)
Unit ranks
Passing offense5.8 net yds/dropback (adj.)6th
Passing offense: 6th of 32, 5.8 net yds/dropback (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing offense52% success rate (adj.)17th
Rushing offense: 17th of 32, 52% success rate (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Passing defense5.8 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.)24th
Passing defense: 24th of 32, 5.8 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing defense56% success allowed (adj.)26th
Rushing defense: 26th of 32, 56% success allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Calculated from box scores · through Week 3 · 2 games
Points/game
23.515th
Points allowed/game
15.06th
Point differential
+177th
Through Week 3 · 2 games
Form
W W 34-10
L L 13-20
Week 3 matchup
vs New England Patriots
Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM EDT
Win chance58%VegasJacksonville Jaguars: 58 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (JAX −3 · O/U 46.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Week 4 matchup
at Cincinnati Bengals
Sun Oct 4 · 1:00 PM EDT
Win chance41%VegasJacksonville Jaguars: 41 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (CIN −3 · O/U 49.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Team breakdown →
12Up 1 place from 13
Detroit Lions
1-1recordNFC North
Playoff Threats
Goff, Gibbs, Amon Ra is elite
Lost to Bills (projected 2nd) by 10. They moved the ball at will — a success rate of 70% against a defence holding everyone else to 52%. 49% of Jared Goff's yardage went to Amon-Ra St. Brown, 9 catches for 142 and a score — one obvious answer, and defences get a week to work on it. At 27% they were not expected to win, so the rating barely moves.
Editor's note · written after Week 2 (L 31-41 at Bills)
Unit ranks
Passing offense5.7 net yds/dropback (adj.)9th
Passing offense: 9th of 32, 5.7 net yds/dropback (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing offense52% success rate (adj.)19th
Rushing offense: 19th of 32, 52% success rate (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Passing defense5.4 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.)13th
Passing defense: 13th of 32, 5.4 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing defense56% success allowed (adj.)27th
Rushing defense: 27th of 32, 56% success allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Calculated from box scores · through Week 3 · 2 games
Points/game
31.04th
Points allowed/game
35.531st
Point differential
-918th
Through Week 3 · 2 games
Form
W W 31-30
L L 31-41
Week 3 matchup
vs New York Jets
Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM EDT
Win chance72%VegasDetroit Lions: 72 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (DET −6.5 · O/U 47.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Week 4 matchup
at Carolina Panthers
Sun Oct 4 · 8:20 PM EDT
Win chance58%VegasDetroit Lions: 58 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (DET −3 · O/U 49.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Team breakdown →
Big fallerDown 4 places in the rankings from No. 9 — one of the week's two steepest falls
13Down 4 places from 9
Houston Texans
0-2recordAFC South
Playoff Threats
Lost to Bengals (projected 6th) by 14. They could not stay on schedule: 43% of snaps succeeded against a defence that had been allowing 66%. 45% of C.J. Stroud's yardage went to Dalton Schultz, 12 catches for 140 — one obvious answer, and defences get a week to work on it. Our own estimate had them at 43%, so the loss is only a modest mark against them.
Editor's note · written after Week 2 (L 6-20 vs Bengals)
Unit ranks
Passing offense5.5 net yds/dropback (adj.)16th
Passing offense: 16th of 32, 5.5 net yds/dropback (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing offense51% success rate (adj.)26th
Rushing offense: 26th of 32, 51% success rate (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Passing defense6.0 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.)29th
Passing defense: 29th of 32, 6.0 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing defense49% success allowed (adj.)4th
Rushing defense: 4th of 32, 49% success allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Calculated from box scores · through Week 3 · 2 games
Points/game
18.521st
Points allowed/game
28.024th
Point differential
-1926th
Through Week 3 · 2 games
Form
L L 31-36
L L 6-20
Week 3 matchup
at Indianapolis Colts
Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM EDT
Win chance53%VegasHouston Texans: 53 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (HOU −1.5 · O/U 42.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Week 4 matchup
vs Dallas Cowboys
Sun Oct 4 · 1:00 PM EDT
Win chance59%VegasHouston Texans: 59 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (HOU −3 · O/U 47.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Team breakdown →
14Up 3 places from 17
New England Patriots
1-1recordAFC East
In the Mix
The defence is the story
Beat Steelers (projected 26th) by 17. They moved the ball at will — a success rate of 54% against a defence holding everyone else to 38%. Our own estimate had it at 65% — a real contest, and winning it counts.
Generated from results and market prices
Unit ranks
Passing offense5.0 net yds/dropback (adj.)30th
Passing offense: 30th of 32, 5.0 net yds/dropback (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing offense54% success rate (adj.)10th
Rushing offense: 10th of 32, 54% success rate (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Passing defense5.1 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.)7th
Passing defense: 7th of 32, 5.1 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing defense52% success allowed (adj.)11th
Rushing defense: 11th of 32, 52% success allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Calculated from box scores · through Week 3 · 2 games
Points/game
15.027th
Points allowed/game
8.01st
Point differential
+1410th
Through Week 3 · 2 games
Form
L L 10-13
W W 20-3
Week 3 matchup
at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM EDT
Win chance42%VegasNew England Patriots: 42 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (JAX −3 · O/U 46.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Week 4 matchup
at Buffalo Bills
Sun Oct 4 · 1:00 PM EDT
Win chance31%VegasNew England Patriots: 31 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (BUF −5.5 · O/U 49.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Team breakdown →
15Up 3 places from 18
Dallas Cowboys
1-1recordNFC East
In the Mix
Beat Commanders (projected 29th) by 17. They moved the ball at will — a success rate of 53% against a defence holding everyone else to 38%. Dak Prescott was surgical, 26 of 31 at 8.1 a dropback with 4 touchdowns. Our own estimate had it at 63% — a real contest, and winning it counts.
Editor's note · written after Week 2 (W 37-20 vs Commanders)
Unit ranks
Passing offense5.5 net yds/dropback (adj.)15th
Passing offense: 15th of 32, 5.5 net yds/dropback (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing offense52% success rate (adj.)22nd
Rushing offense: 22nd of 32, 52% success rate (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Passing defense5.9 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.)28th
Passing defense: 28th of 32, 5.9 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing defense57% success allowed (adj.)29th
Rushing defense: 29th of 32, 57% success allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Calculated from box scores · through Week 3 · 2 games
Points/game
28.58th
Points allowed/game
24.019th
Point differential
+913th
Through Week 3 · 2 games
Form
L L 20-28
W W 37-20
Week 3 matchup
vs Baltimore Ravens
Sun Sep 27 · 4:25 PM EDT
Win chance39%VegasDallas Cowboys: 39 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (BAL −3.5 · O/U 53.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Week 4 matchup
at Houston Texans
Sun Oct 4 · 1:00 PM EDT
Win chance41%VegasDallas Cowboys: 41 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (HOU −3 · O/U 47.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Team breakdown →
Big riserUp 6 places in the rankings from No. 22 — one of the week's two biggest climbs
16Up 6 places from 22
Minnesota Vikings
2-0recordNFC North
In the Mix
Beat Bears (projected 11th) by 6. They could not stay on schedule: 42% of snaps succeeded against a defence that had been allowing 55%. Our own estimate gave them 31%, which is why this moves them as far as it does.
Editor's note · written after Week 2 (W 9-3 at Bears)
Unit ranks
Passing offense5.1 net yds/dropback (adj.)27th
Passing offense: 27th of 32, 5.1 net yds/dropback (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing offense52% success rate (adj.)25th
Rushing offense: 25th of 32, 52% success rate (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Passing defense5.3 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.)11th
Passing defense: 11th of 32, 5.3 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing defense48% success allowed (adj.)3rd
Rushing defense: 3rd of 32, 48% success allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Calculated from box scores · through Week 3 · 2 games
Points/game
24.013th
Points allowed/game
12.54th
Point differential
+235th
Through Week 3 · 2 games
Form
W W 39-22
W W 9-3
Week 3 matchup
at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sun Sep 27 · 4:05 PM EDT
Win chance52%VegasMinnesota Vikings: 52 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (MIN −1.5 · O/U 42.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Week 4 matchup
vs Miami Dolphins
Sun Oct 4 · 4:05 PM EDT
Win chance84%VegasMinnesota Vikings: 84 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (MIN −10.5 · O/U 42.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Team breakdown →
17Up 4 places from 21
New Orleans Saints
1-1recordNFC South
Long Shots
Beat Ravens (projected 8th) by 7. They won it without ever being efficient: just 34% of early-down snaps succeeded, leaving third down needing 7.9 on average. Our own estimate gave them 24%, which is why this moves them as far as it does.
Editor's note · written after Week 2 (W 24-17 at Ravens)
Unit ranks
Passing offense5.5 net yds/dropback (adj.)18th
Passing offense: 18th of 32, 5.5 net yds/dropback (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing offense48% success rate (adj.)32nd
Rushing offense: 32nd of 32, 48% success rate (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Passing defense5.2 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.)10th
Passing defense: 10th of 32, 5.2 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing defense58% success allowed (adj.)31st
Rushing defense: 31st of 32, 58% success allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Calculated from box scores · through Week 3 · 2 games
Points/game
27.09th
Points allowed/game
24.019th
Point differential
+615th
Through Week 3 · 2 games
Form
L L 30-31
W W 24-17
Week 3 matchup
vs Las Vegas Raiders
Sun Sep 27 · 4:25 PM EDT
Win chance62%VegasNew Orleans Saints: 62 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (NO −3 · O/U 43.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Week 4 matchup
vs Atlanta Falcons
Mon Oct 5 · 8:15 PM EDT
Win chance62%VegasNew Orleans Saints: 62 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (NO −3.5 · O/U 45.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Team breakdown →
18Down 3 places from 15
Green Bay Packers
1-2recordNFC North
Long Shots
Beat Jets (projected 25th) by 3. The offence never got going: three-and-out on 42% of drives, 1.7 points a possession. Our own estimate had it at 64% — a real contest, and winning it counts.
Editor's note · written after Week 2 (W 20-17 at Jets)
Unit ranks
Passing offense5.5 net yds/dropback (adj.)14th
Passing offense: 14th of 32, 5.5 net yds/dropback (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing offense50% success rate (adj.)28th
Rushing offense: 28th of 32, 50% success rate (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Passing defense5.5 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.)16th
Passing defense: 16th of 32, 5.5 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing defense56% success allowed (adj.)28th
Rushing defense: 28th of 32, 56% success allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Calculated from box scores · through Week 3 · 3 games
Points/game
18.720th
Points allowed/game
30.326th
Point differential
-3531st
Through Week 3 · 3 games
Form
L L 22-39
W W 20-17
L L 14-35
Week 3 result
L 14-35 vs Falcons
After this edition was published
Week 4 matchup
at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sun Oct 4 · 1:00 PM EDT
Win chance52%VegasGreen Bay Packers: 52 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (GB −1.5 · O/U 45.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Team breakdown →
19Up 5 places from 24
Carolina Panthers
1-1recordNFC South
In the Mix
Points have not been a problem
Beat Falcons (projected 30th) by 31. They won it without ever being efficient: just 40% of early-down snaps succeeded, leaving third down needing 8.8 on average. Read the totals carefully — 41% of their snaps came with the result already decided. Our own estimate had it at 54% — a real contest, and winning it counts.
Generated from results and market prices
Unit ranks
Passing offense6.1 net yds/dropback (adj.)3rd
Passing offense: 3rd of 32, 6.1 net yds/dropback (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing offense53% success rate (adj.)14th
Rushing offense: 14th of 32, 53% success rate (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Passing defense5.1 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.)8th
Passing defense: 8th of 32, 5.1 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing defense53% success allowed (adj.)17th
Rushing defense: 17th of 32, 53% success allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Calculated from box scores · through Week 3 · 2 games
Points/game
35.52nd
Points allowed/game
31.028th
Point differential
+913th
Through Week 3 · 2 games
Form
L L 37-59
W W 34-3
Week 3 matchup
at Cleveland Browns
Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM EDT
Win chance57%VegasCarolina Panthers: 57 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (CAR −2.5 · O/U 42.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Week 4 matchup
vs Detroit Lions
Sun Oct 4 · 8:20 PM EDT
Win chance42%VegasCarolina Panthers: 42 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (DET −3 · O/U 49.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Team breakdown →
20Down 4 places from 16
New York Giants
1-1recordNFC East
Long Shots
Lost to Rams (projected 5th) by 22. They could not stay on schedule: 36% of snaps succeeded against a defence that had been allowing 69%. Jameis Winston never got going — 11 of 27 for 111 at 3.8 a dropback, with an interception. At 28% they were not expected to win, so the rating barely moves.
Editor's note · written after Week 2 (L 6-28 at Rams)
Unit ranks
Passing offense5.3 net yds/dropback (adj.)20th
Passing offense: 20th of 32, 5.3 net yds/dropback (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing offense51% success rate (adj.)27th
Rushing offense: 27th of 32, 51% success rate (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Passing defense5.6 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.)19th
Passing defense: 19th of 32, 5.6 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing defense57% success allowed (adj.)30th
Rushing defense: 30th of 32, 57% success allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Calculated from box scores · through Week 3 · 2 games
Points/game
17.023rd
Points allowed/game
24.019th
Point differential
-1422nd
Through Week 3 · 2 games
Form
W W 28-20
L L 6-28
Week 3 matchup
vs Tennessee Titans
Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM EDT
Win chance55%VegasNew York Giants: 55 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (NYG −2.5 · O/U 38.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Week 4 matchup
vs Arizona Cardinals
Sun Oct 4 · 1:00 PM EDT
Win chance55%VegasNew York Giants: 55 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (NYG −2.5 · O/U 43.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Team breakdown →
Big fallerDown 7 places in the rankings from No. 14 — one of the week's two steepest falls
21Down 7 places from 14
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
0-2recordNFC South
Rebuilding
Lost to Browns (projected 27th) by 4. They could not stay on schedule: 52% of snaps succeeded against a defence that had been allowing 62%. Baker Mayfield never got going — 21 of 34 for 182 at 4.8 a dropback, with an interception. They were 77% on our own estimate to win this, and losing a game you were expected to win costs more than the margin suggests.
Editor's note · written after Week 2 (L 19-23 vs Browns)
Unit ranks
Passing offense5.2 net yds/dropback (adj.)25th
Passing offense: 25th of 32, 5.2 net yds/dropback (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing offense56% success rate (adj.)3rd
Rushing offense: 3rd of 32, 56% success rate (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Passing defense5.7 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.)23rd
Passing defense: 23rd of 32, 5.7 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing defense50% success allowed (adj.)5th
Rushing defense: 5th of 32, 50% success allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Calculated from box scores · through Week 3 · 2 games
Points/game
23.016th
Points allowed/game
28.024th
Point differential
-1019th
Through Week 3 · 2 games
Form
L L 27-33
L L 19-23
Week 3 matchup
vs Minnesota Vikings
Sun Sep 27 · 4:05 PM EDT
Win chance48%VegasTampa Bay Buccaneers: 48 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (MIN −1.5 · O/U 42.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Week 4 matchup
vs Green Bay Packers
Sun Oct 4 · 1:00 PM EDT
Win chance48%VegasTampa Bay Buccaneers: 48 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (GB −1.5 · O/U 45.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Team breakdown →
22Down 3 places from 19
Arizona Cardinals
1-1recordNFC West
In the Mix
Long odds again this week
Lost to Seahawks (projected 1st) by 24. Jacoby Brissett never got going — 17 of 28 for 95 at 2.7 a dropback, with an interception. The offence never got going: three-and-out on 44% of drives, 0.8 points a possession. At 23% they were not expected to win, so the rating barely moves.
Generated from results and market prices
Unit ranks
Passing offense5.3 net yds/dropback (adj.)23rd
Passing offense: 23rd of 32, 5.3 net yds/dropback (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing offense52% success rate (adj.)21st
Rushing offense: 21st of 32, 52% success rate (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Passing defense5.7 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.)22nd
Passing defense: 22nd of 32, 5.7 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing defense51% success allowed (adj.)7th
Rushing defense: 7th of 32, 51% success allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Calculated from box scores · through Week 3 · 2 games
Points/game
16.525th
Points allowed/game
22.514th
Point differential
-1221st
Through Week 3 · 2 games
Form
W W 26-14
L L 7-31
Week 3 matchup
at San Francisco 49ers
Sun Sep 27 · 4:05 PM EDT
Win chance21%VegasArizona Cardinals: 21 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (SF −8.5 · O/U 47.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Week 4 matchup
at New York Giants
Sun Oct 4 · 1:00 PM EDT
Win chance45%VegasArizona Cardinals: 45 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (NYG −2.5 · O/U 43.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Team breakdown →
Big riserUp 6 places in the rankings from No. 29 — one of the week's two biggest climbs
23Up 6 places from 29
Las Vegas Raiders
2-0recordAFC West
Long Shots
Balanced, and holding up
Beat Chargers (projected 23rd) by 12. They won the turnover battle 3-1 without winning the game — Chargers moved the ball on 52% of snaps to their 37%. That is the least repeatable way to win a football game, and the rating treats it as such. They could not stay on schedule: 37% of snaps succeeded against a defence that had been allowing 52%. Our own estimate gave them 35%, which is why this moves them as far as it does.
Generated from results and market prices
Unit ranks
Passing offense5.0 net yds/dropback (adj.)29th
Passing offense: 29th of 32, 5.0 net yds/dropback (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing offense52% success rate (adj.)20th
Rushing offense: 20th of 32, 52% success rate (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Passing defense5.0 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.)4th
Passing defense: 4th of 32, 5.0 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing defense52% success allowed (adj.)12th
Rushing defense: 12th of 32, 52% success allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Calculated from box scores · through Week 3 · 2 games
Points/game
26.510th
Points allowed/game
13.55th
Point differential
+263rd
Through Week 3 · 2 games
Form
W W 27-13
W W 26-14
Week 3 matchup
at New Orleans Saints
Sun Sep 27 · 4:25 PM EDT
Win chance38%VegasLas Vegas Raiders: 38 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (NO −3 · O/U 43.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Week 4 matchup
vs Kansas City Chiefs
Sun Oct 4 · 4:25 PM EDT
Win chance31%VegasLas Vegas Raiders: 31 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (KC −6 · O/U 45.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Team breakdown →
24Down 4 places from 20
Los Angeles Chargers
0-2recordAFC West
In the Mix
Lost to Raiders (projected 24th) by 12. They moved the ball at will — a success rate of 52% against a defence holding everyone else to 41%. They gave it away 3 times and the margin followed. Turnovers bounce around week to week, so the rating reads this result more kindly than the scoreline does. They were 65% on our own estimate to win this, and losing a game you were expected to win costs more than the margin suggests.
Editor's note · written after Week 2 (L 14-26 vs Raiders)
Unit ranks
Passing offense5.0 net yds/dropback (adj.)28th
Passing offense: 28th of 32, 5.0 net yds/dropback (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing offense52% success rate (adj.)18th
Rushing offense: 18th of 32, 52% success rate (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Passing defense6.1 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.)30th
Passing defense: 30th of 32, 6.1 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing defense48% success allowed (adj.)2nd
Rushing defense: 2nd of 32, 48% success allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Calculated from box scores · through Week 3 · 2 games
Points/game
14.030th
Points allowed/game
26.022nd
Point differential
-2430th
Through Week 3 · 2 games
Form
L L 14-26
L L 14-26
Week 3 matchup
at Buffalo Bills
Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM EDT
Win chance26%VegasLos Angeles Chargers: 26 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (BUF −7 · O/U 50.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Week 4 matchup
at Seattle Seahawks
Sun Oct 4 · 4:25 PM EDT
Win chance29%VegasLos Angeles Chargers: 29 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (SEA −6.5 · O/U 42.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Team breakdown →
25Up 1 place from 26
Indianapolis Colts
0-2recordAFC South
Rebuilding
Lost to Chiefs (projected 4th) by 3. Scored on 67% of their drives at 3.3 points a possession, which is efficiency rather than opportunity. At 28% they were not expected to win, so the rating barely moves.
Editor's note · written after Week 2 (L 30-33 at Chiefs)
Unit ranks
Passing offense5.2 net yds/dropback (adj.)26th
Passing offense: 26th of 32, 5.2 net yds/dropback (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing offense54% success rate (adj.)9th
Rushing offense: 9th of 32, 54% success rate (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Passing defense6.6 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.)32nd
Passing defense: 32nd of 32, 6.6 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing defense56% success allowed (adj.)25th
Rushing defense: 25th of 32, 56% success allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Calculated from box scores · through Week 3 · 2 games
Points/game
26.510th
Points allowed/game
37.032nd
Point differential
-2129th
Through Week 3 · 2 games
Form
L L 23-41
L L 30-33
Week 3 matchup
vs Houston Texans
Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM EDT
Win chance47%VegasIndianapolis Colts: 47 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (HOU −1.5 · O/U 42.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Week 4 matchup
vs Washington Commanders
Sun Oct 4 · 9:30 AM EDT
Win chance64%VegasIndianapolis Colts: 64 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (IND −4.5 · O/U 46.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Team breakdown →
26Up 2 places from 28
New York Jets
1-1recordAFC East
Rebuilding
Lost to Packers (projected 10th) by 3. The problem was first and second down, not third — 43% of early-down snaps succeeded, leaving third down needing 9.4 on average. Our own estimate had them at 36%, so the loss is only a modest mark against them.
Editor's note · written after Week 2 (L 17-20 vs Packers)
Unit ranks
Passing offense5.7 net yds/dropback (adj.)8th
Passing offense: 8th of 32, 5.7 net yds/dropback (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing offense55% success rate (adj.)7th
Rushing offense: 7th of 32, 55% success rate (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Passing defense5.0 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.)3rd
Passing defense: 3rd of 32, 5.0 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing defense54% success allowed (adj.)21st
Rushing defense: 21st of 32, 54% success allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Calculated from box scores · through Week 3 · 2 games
Points/game
20.019th
Points allowed/game
15.06th
Point differential
+1012th
Through Week 3 · 2 games
Form
W W 23-10
L L 17-20
Week 3 matchup
at Detroit Lions
Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM EDT
Win chance28%VegasNew York Jets: 28 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (DET −6.5 · O/U 47.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Week 4 matchup
at Chicago Bears
Sun Oct 4 · 1:00 PM EDT
Win chance41%VegasNew York Jets: 41 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (CHI −3 · O/U 43.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Team breakdown →
27Down 4 places from 23
Pittsburgh Steelers
1-1recordAFC North
Long Shots
Lost to Patriots (projected 14th) by 17. They could not stay on schedule: 38% of snaps succeeded against a defence that had been allowing 51%. Aaron Rodgers never got going — 23 of 39 for 187 at 3.3 a dropback, with an interception. At 35% they were not expected to win, so the rating barely moves.
Editor's note · written after Week 2 (L 3-20 at Patriots)
Unit ranks
Passing offense4.8 net yds/dropback (adj.)31st
Passing offense: 31st of 32, 4.8 net yds/dropback (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing offense49% success rate (adj.)31st
Rushing offense: 31st of 32, 49% success rate (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Passing defense5.1 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.)9th
Passing defense: 9th of 32, 5.1 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing defense52% success allowed (adj.)13th
Rushing defense: 13th of 32, 52% success allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Calculated from box scores · through Week 3 · 2 games
Points/game
11.532nd
Points allowed/game
16.58th
Point differential
-1019th
Through Week 3 · 2 games
Form
W W 20-13
L L 3-20
Week 3 matchup
vs Cincinnati Bengals
Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM EDT
Win chance39%VegasPittsburgh Steelers: 39 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (CIN −3.5 · O/U 42.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Week 4 matchup
at Cleveland Browns
Thu Oct 1 · 8:15 PM EDT
Win chance57%VegasPittsburgh Steelers: 57 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (PIT −3 · O/U 38.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Team breakdown →
28Up 3 places from 31
Cleveland Browns
1-1recordAFC North
Rebuilding
Beat Buccaneers (projected 16th) by 4. They won it without ever being efficient: just 42% of early-down snaps succeeded, leaving third down needing 7.8 on average. 43% of Deshaun Watson's yardage went to Denzel Boston, 5 catches for 95 and a score — one obvious answer, and defences get a week to work on it. Our own estimate gave them 23%, which is why this moves them as far as it does.
Editor's note · written after Week 2 (W 23-19 at Buccaneers)
Unit ranks
Passing offense5.6 net yds/dropback (adj.)11th
Passing offense: 11th of 32, 5.6 net yds/dropback (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing offense52% success rate (adj.)24th
Rushing offense: 24th of 32, 52% success rate (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Passing defense5.6 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.)21st
Passing defense: 21st of 32, 5.6 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing defense55% success allowed (adj.)23rd
Rushing defense: 23rd of 32, 55% success allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Calculated from box scores · through Week 3 · 2 games
Points/game
16.525th
Points allowed/game
26.523rd
Point differential
-2028th
Through Week 3 · 2 games
Form
L L 10-34
W W 23-19
Week 3 matchup
vs Carolina Panthers
Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM EDT
Win chance43%VegasCleveland Browns: 43 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (CAR −2.5 · O/U 42.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Week 4 matchup
vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Thu Oct 1 · 8:15 PM EDT
Win chance43%VegasCleveland Browns: 43 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (PIT −3 · O/U 38.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Team breakdown →
29Down 2 places from 27
Atlanta Falcons
1-2recordNFC South
Long Shots
Lost to Panthers (projected 19th) by 31. They could not stay on schedule: 36% of snaps succeeded against a defence that had been allowing 58%. They gave it away 5 times and the margin followed. Turnovers bounce around week to week, so the rating reads this result more kindly than the scoreline does. Our own estimate had this at a coin flip, 46%, so the loss costs them little.
Editor's note · written after Week 2 (L 3-34 vs Panthers)
Unit ranks
Passing offense4.5 net yds/dropback (adj.)32nd
Passing offense: 32nd of 32, 4.5 net yds/dropback (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing offense54% success rate (adj.)12th
Rushing offense: 12th of 32, 54% success rate (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Passing defense5.5 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.)15th
Passing defense: 15th of 32, 5.5 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing defense48% success allowed (adj.)1st
Rushing defense: 1st of 32, 48% success allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Calculated from box scores · through Week 3 · 3 games
Points/game
17.023rd
Points allowed/game
22.715th
Point differential
-1724th
Through Week 3 · 3 games
Form
L L 13-20
L L 3-34
W W 35-14
Week 3 result
W 35-14 at Packers
After this edition was published
Week 4 matchup
at New Orleans Saints
Mon Oct 5 · 8:15 PM EDT
Win chance38%VegasAtlanta Falcons: 38 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (NO −3.5 · O/U 45.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Team breakdown →
30Up 2 places from 32
Tennessee Titans
0-2recordAFC South
Rebuilding
Lost to Eagles (projected 9th) by 4. They won the turnover battle 2-0 without winning the game — Eagles moved the ball on 43% of snaps to their 40%. That is the least repeatable way to win a football game, and the rating treats it as such. The problem was first and second down, not third — 35% of early-down snaps succeeded, leaving third down needing 9.5 on average. At 32% they were not expected to win, so the rating barely moves.
Editor's note · written after Week 2 (L 20-24 vs Eagles)
Unit ranks
Passing offense5.5 net yds/dropback (adj.)17th
Passing offense: 17th of 32, 5.5 net yds/dropback (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing offense53% success rate (adj.)15th
Rushing offense: 15th of 32, 53% success rate (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Passing defense5.6 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.)20th
Passing defense: 20th of 32, 5.6 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing defense54% success allowed (adj.)20th
Rushing defense: 20th of 32, 54% success allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Calculated from box scores · through Week 3 · 2 games
Points/game
15.027th
Points allowed/game
23.517th
Point differential
-1724th
Through Week 3 · 2 games
Form
L L 10-23
L L 20-24
Week 3 matchup
at New York Giants
Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM EDT
Win chance45%VegasTennessee Titans: 45 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (NYG −2.5 · O/U 38.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Week 4 matchup
at Baltimore Ravens
Sun Oct 4 · 1:00 PM EDT
Win chance18%VegasTennessee Titans: 18 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (BAL −10.5 · O/U 44.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Team breakdown →
31Down 6 places from 25
Washington Commanders
0-2recordNFC East
Rebuilding
Long odds again this week
Lost to Cowboys (projected 18th) by 17. They ran it 32 times and it worked on 68% of them without the scoreboard doing them any favours. Our own estimate had them at 37%, so the loss is only a modest mark against them.
Generated from results and market prices
Unit ranks
Passing offense5.3 net yds/dropback (adj.)21st
Passing offense: 21st of 32, 5.3 net yds/dropback (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing offense55% success rate (adj.)6th
Rushing offense: 6th of 32, 55% success rate (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Passing defense6.1 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.)31st
Passing defense: 31st of 32, 6.1 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing defense51% success allowed (adj.)8th
Rushing defense: 8th of 32, 51% success allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Calculated from box scores · through Week 3 · 2 games
Points/game
21.018th
Points allowed/game
30.527th
Point differential
-1926th
Through Week 3 · 2 games
Form
L L 22-24
L L 20-37
Week 3 matchup
vs Seattle Seahawks
Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM EDT
Win chance25%VegasWashington Commanders: 25 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (SEA −7.5 · O/U 40.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Week 4 matchup
vs Indianapolis Colts
Sun Oct 4 · 9:30 AM EDT
Win chance36%VegasWashington Commanders: 36 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (IND −4.5 · O/U 46.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Team breakdown →
32Down 2 places from 30
Miami Dolphins
0-2recordAFC East
Rebuilding
It is not working yet
Lost to 49ers (projected 3rd) by 22. Read the totals carefully — 41% of their snaps came with the result already decided, which flatters the closing margin. At 13% they were not expected to win, so the rating barely moves.
Generated from results and market prices
Unit ranks
Passing offense5.5 net yds/dropback (adj.)12th
Passing offense: 12th of 32, 5.5 net yds/dropback (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing offense50% success rate (adj.)29th
Rushing offense: 29th of 32, 50% success rate (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Passing defense5.8 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.)25th
Passing defense: 25th of 32, 5.8 net yds/dropback allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Rushing defense58% success allowed (adj.)32nd
Rushing defense: 32nd of 32, 58% success allowed (adj.). Calculated from box scores.
Calculated from box scores · through Week 3 · 2 games
Points/game
13.031st
Points allowed/game
31.028th
Point differential
-3632nd
Through Week 3 · 2 games
Form
L L 13-27
L L 13-35
Week 3 matchup
vs Kansas City Chiefs
Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM EDT
Win chance17%VegasMiami Dolphins: 17 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (KC −10.5 · O/U 45.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Week 4 matchup
at Minnesota Vikings
Sun Oct 4 · 4:05 PM EDT
Win chance16%VegasMiami Dolphins: 16 percent win chance implied by the DraftKings line (MIN −10.5 · O/U 42.5), with the bookmaker’s margin removed.
Team breakdown →

The season so far

Compare two teams

Every team’s published rank, Week 1 to Week 3. Rank 1 is at the top.

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View as a table

Published power rankings by week, Week 1 to Week 3
Team	Week 1	Week 2	Week 3
Buffalo Bills	4	2	1
Seattle Seahawks	3	1	2
San Francisco 49ers	17	3	3
Kansas City Chiefs	14	5	4
Los Angeles Rams	1	6	5
Cincinnati Bengals	7	4	6
Denver Broncos	2	7	7
Chicago Bears	11	8	8
Baltimore Ravens	6	11	9
Philadelphia Eagles	5	12	10
Jacksonville Jaguars	9	10	11
Detroit Lions	15	13	12
Houston Texans	10	9	13
New England Patriots	13	17	14
Dallas Cowboys	8	18	15
Minnesota Vikings	19	22	16
New Orleans Saints	22	21	17
Green Bay Packers	12	15	18
Carolina Panthers	23	24	19
New York Giants	26	16	20
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	18	14	21
Arizona Cardinals	25	19	22
Las Vegas Raiders	29	29	23
Los Angeles Chargers	16	20	24
Indianapolis Colts	20	26	25
New York Jets	28	28	26
Pittsburgh Steelers	21	23	27
Cleveland Browns	30	31	28
Atlanta Falcons	27	27	29
Tennessee Titans	24	32	30
Washington Commanders	31	25	31
Miami Dolphins	32	30	32

NFLPower Rankings

Biggest ranking moves in this edition

Full rankings

Josh Allen MVP

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When is Darnold coming back?

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Purdy remains underrated

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Mahomes is back? K9 OPOY?

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Maybe they did have bad travel plans...

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Winning games but not because their offense

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Bo Nix needs to figure it out, Davis Webb can't call plays right now

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Caleb ran out of nail polish

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Zay Flowers is the glue

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Barely snuck out a win

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Wasted pick on Travis Hunter

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Goff, Gibbs, Amon Ra is elite

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The defence is the story

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Points have not been a problem

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Long odds again this week

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Balanced, and holding up

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Long odds again this week

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It is not working yet

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The season so far